In the very first "House Line" for the 2010 election cycle, Chris Cilliza of the Washington Post rates the top ten seats he predicts most likely to switch parties in the U.S. House. Very early in this cycle, freshman Democrat Walt Minnick's 1st District seat comes in at number two on the list.
Idaho's 1st district (D) ([Obama won] 36 percent): Rep. Walt Minnick (D) ran a solid and professional campaign but it's hard to imagine him having won this seat if not for the utter ineptitude of then Rep. Bill Sali (R), a hard-right Republican who managed to alienate even his allies during his single term in Congress. Minnick raised a very solid $394,0000 in the first three months of 2009 but the simple fact of this district is that the Democrat could do everything right and still lose. Minnick got something of a break when state Treasurer Ron Crane decided against running but, rest assured, Republicans will find a credible candidate.
Other political observers, Stuart Rothenberg and Charlie Cook list Minnick's seat as "Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic" and "Democratic Toss Up," respectively. Cook ranks it as one of the three most competitive Democraticly held seats.
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